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Hurricane Fernanda Forecast Discussion Number 14
2017-07-15 10:34:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 15 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 150834 TCDEP1 Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Fernanda has not intensified during the past few hours. The convective tops surrounding the eye have warmed up a little, but the overall cloud pattern continues to be very impressive. The Dvorak T-numbers are 6.0 and 6.5 indicating that winds are still around 125 kt. Fernanda has the possibility of some strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours since the hurricane is embedded within light shear and moving over warm waters. After that time, the hurricane will likely maintain the same intensity for a couple of days, but a weakening trend should then begin as the circulation of the cyclone encounters cooler waters by the end of the forecast period. The NHC forecast continues to be above the intensity guidance, and does not vary much from the previous one. The hurricane is moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 10 kt. The cyclone is being steered by a deep layer of easterlies associated with a strong subtropical ridge. A general westward track with a gradual turn to the west-northwest is anticipated as the hurricane approaches the western portion of the ridge over the next 5 days. Track guidance is tightly clustered, and the NHC forecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 10.8N 121.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 11.1N 123.6W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 11.8N 125.9W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 12.5N 128.5W 130 KT 150 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 13.5N 131.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 15.0N 135.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 16.5N 138.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 17.0N 140.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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