je.st
news
Hurricane Fernanda Forecast Discussion Number 17
2017-07-16 04:42:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Jul 15 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 160242 TCDEP1 Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 800 PM PDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Recent microwave imagery, including a just-received GPM overpass, indicate that Fernanda continues to have concentric eyewalls with diameters of roughly 10 and 45 n mi. The eye has become less distinct in conventional satellite imagery since the last advisory, and the central convection has become more ragged. Based on this, the initial intensity is lowered to 110 kt, which is a little below the average of the various satellite intensity estimates. While the inner core has become a little less organized since yesterday, the hurricane has developed a large and symmetric area of outer convective banding. Fernanda has about 24 h more in a warm-water, light-shear environment. The intensity forecast is based on the premise that the current eyewall replacement cycle will finish before the hurricane leaves the warmest water, and thus it calls for some re-intensification during that time. From 24-96 h, Fernanda should remain in a light shear environment, but will move over decreasing sea surface temperatures and into a drier air mass. After 96 h, the cyclone will also encounter significant westerly shear. The intensity forecast thus calls for steady to rapid weakening after 36 h. Overall, the new intensity forecast is a little higher than the model consensus for the first 36 h and near the consensus after that. Fernanda is now moving 285/12, steered by a mid- to upper-level ridge to the north and northeast. A west-northwestward motion is expected to continue for the next several days while the hurricane moves toward a weakness at the western periphery of the ridge. After 96 h, most of the guidance suggests that Fernanda should turn westward as it weakens and becomes steered by the low-level subtropical ridge. The new forecast track remains near the middle of the guidance envelope and in best agreement with the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 11.7N 125.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 12.4N 127.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 13.2N 129.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 14.0N 131.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 14.7N 133.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 16.5N 136.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 17.5N 139.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 17.5N 142.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||