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Hurricane Fernanda Forecast Discussion Number 26
2017-07-18 10:36:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 180836 TCDEP1 Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 200 AM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017 Fernanda is gradually weakening. The eye of the hurricane is no longer apparent in satellite images, and dry slots are evident in microwave images over the eastern portion of the circulation. The cloud pattern now consists of a fairly circular central dense overcast with curved bands surrounding the convective mass. The Dvorak CI-numbers are 5.0/90 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the ADT values from UW-CIMSS are similar. Based on these estimates, the initial intensity is lowered a little to 90 kt. Fernanda is still over relatively warm sea-surface temperatures, but it is headed for cooler waters, and by 24 hours it should be crossing the 26 deg C isotherm. These cooler waters combined with drier air and a significant increase in southwesterly wind shear that begins in a few days should cause the cyclone to steadily weaken. Fernanda is predicted to be a remnant low by the end of the forecast period when the SHIPS model shows the shear increasing to near 30 kt and the environmental mid-level relative humidity values below 40 percent. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and generally follows the intensity model consensus. The track forecast philosophy for Fernanda remains unchanged. The hurricane continues to move northwestward at 8 kt toward a weakness in the ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level trough to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. This general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours or so. After that time, the trough is forecast to lift out, allowing the ridge to rebuild to the north of the weakening system. This pattern change should cause Fernanda to turn westward to west-northwestward. Only small changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast, and the new one lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 15.4N 132.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 16.1N 133.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 16.9N 134.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 17.4N 136.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 17.8N 137.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 18.6N 140.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 19.3N 143.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 19.9N 147.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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