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Hurricane Fernanda Forecast Discussion Number 27
2017-07-18 16:36:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 181436 TCDEP1 Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017 Fernanda's eye is only intermittently visible in the shortwave infrared imagery this morning. The deep convection is still quite cold and symmetric around the center and a 1016Z AMSR2 microwave image showed that a nearly complete eyewall was present. Subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB and the objective ADT have dropped slightly, so an initial intensity of 85 kt is analyzed. The hurricane is moving toward the northwest at 8 kt. Fernanda's motion is being influenced by a deep-layer subtropical ridge to its northeast and a mid-level trough to its northwest. In a couple of days, the trough lifts out and a mid-level ridge builds in north of Fernanda causing the tropical cyclone to turn back toward the west-northwest or west. The official track forecast is based upon the tightly clustered TVCN multi-model track consensus and is nearly identical to the previous advisory. Fernanda should continue to steadily weaken during the next couple of days as it ingests stable, dry air over increasingly cooler SSTs. In two to three days, southwesterly vertical shear should substantially increase and further contribute to Fernanda's weakening. The official intensity forecast - nearly the same as from the previous advisory - is based upon a blend of the LGEM/SHIPS statistical guidance and the COAMPS mesoscale hurricane model. No scatterometer or AMSU size measurements have been available recently, so the initial and forecast wind radii have been maintained. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 15.6N 133.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 16.3N 134.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 17.0N 135.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 17.5N 136.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 18.0N 138.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 18.8N 141.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 19.5N 145.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 23/1200Z 20.0N 149.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Landsea
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