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Hurricane Fernanda Forecast Discussion Number 28
2017-07-18 22:38:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 182038 TCDEP1 Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 200 PM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017 Somewhat surprisingly, Fernanda has made a small comeback this afternoon as its eye has become distinct in the visible satellite imagery in the midst of a ragged ring of very cold cloud tops. Subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB and the objective ADT have increased some, so an initial intensity of 90 kt is analyzed. The hurricane is moving toward the northwest at 7 kt. Fernanda's motion is being influenced by a deep-layer subtropical ridge to its northeast and a mid-level trough to its northwest. In a couple of days, the trough lifts out and a mid-level ridge builds in north of Fernanda causing the tropical cyclone to turn back toward the west-northwest or west. The track guidance is tightly clustered for the first couple of days but at the extended range the guidance shows more spread, especially along the track. The official track forecast is based upon the TVCN multi-model track consensus and is nearly identical to the previous advisory. Fernanda is expected to steadily weaken during the next couple of days as it ingests stable, dry air over increasingly cooler SSTs. In two to three days, southwesterly vertical shear should substantially increase and further contribute to Fernanda's weakening. By days 4 and 5, the winds from Fernanda may be augmented some by a strong pressure gradient setting up north of the tropical cyclone. The official intensity forecast - nearly the same as from the previous advisory - is based upon the IVCN multi-model intensity consensus. Once again, no scatterometer or AMSU size measurements have been available recently, so the initial and forecast wind radii have been maintained. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 16.0N 133.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 16.7N 134.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 17.3N 135.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 17.9N 137.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 18.3N 139.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 19.0N 142.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 20.0N 146.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 23/1800Z 20.5N 150.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Landsea
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