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Hurricane Fernanda Forecast Discussion Number 29
2017-07-19 04:47:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 190247 TCDEP1 Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017 Enhanced Infrared BD-curve GOES-15 imagery indicates considerable cooling of the eye this evening. In fact, the eye has cooled nearly 30 degrees C during the past 6 hours, and is no longer visible in conventional imagery. A blend of Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB yields an initial intensity of 85 kt for this advisory. The cyclone should continue on a steady weakening trend during the next 48 hours as it traverses decreasing oceanic SSTs and moves into a more thermodynamically stable air mass. Toward the end of the forecast period, increasing southwesterly shear associated with a developing cut-off low north of the Hawaiian Islands is expected to further support a gradual spin-down of Fernanda. The NHC intensity forecast reflects weakening to a post-tropical cyclone in 4 days, and further degenerating to a remnant low at day-5. The forecast is again based primarily on the IVCN consensus model. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/8 kt. The NHC forecast track philosophy remains unchanged for this advisory. Fernanda is expected to turn toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours and continue on that general heading through day 5 in response to a subtropical ridge reestablishing to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. The official forecast has been adjusted slightly to the right of the previous advisory and lies close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA), and the GFS/ECMWF (GFEX) model blend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 16.5N 134.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 17.1N 135.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 17.8N 136.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 18.3N 138.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 18.8N 139.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 19.7N 143.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 20.6N 146.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 24/0000Z 21.5N 151.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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