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Hurricane Fernanda Forecast Discussion Number 32
2017-07-19 22:40:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 192040 TCDEP1 Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Fernanda continues to slowly weaken, with the convection gradually decreasing in coverage and intensity due to cool sea surface temperatures and increasing shear. The initial intensity is reduced to 70 kt based on a blend of the various satellite intensity estimates, and this value is on good agreement with the CIMSS satellite consensus. The initial motion is now 300/7. Fernanda is expected to continue this motion through 72 h as it is steered by a strong low- to mid-level ridge to the north. This ridge is forecast to persist after 72 h. However, the guidance continues to show divergence during that time, with the models that forecast Fernanda to weaken more quickly showing a more westward motion. One change in the guidance since the last advisory is that the GFS and the HWRF show a more westward motion after 72 h than previously, and this has helped shift the consensus models southward to near the old forecast track. Based on this, the new forecast track is changed little since the previous advisory, and lies near the current runs of the consensus models. Fernanda is expected to steadily weaken through the forecast period due to various combinations of cool sea surface temperatures, southwesterly to southerly shear, and dry air entrainment. One change from the previous advisory is to keep the system as a tropical cyclone at 72 h based on the GFS and ECMWF forecasting associated organized convection at that time. Otherwise, the new intensity is similar to the previous forecast and in good agreement with the intensity consensus. The initial and forecast wind radii have been revised based on a just-received scatterometer overpass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 17.7N 136.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 18.1N 137.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 18.7N 139.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 19.2N 140.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 19.7N 142.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 21.0N 145.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 22.0N 149.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1800Z 23.0N 155.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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