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Hurricane Fernanda Forecast Discussion Number 33
2017-07-20 04:38:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 200238 TCDEP1 Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Fernanda's cloud pattern has continued to decay with shrinking and weakening convection, while microwave imagery suggests that the inner core has collapsed. In fact, it appears that the mid- and low- levels are beginning to separate. Intensity estimates from all agencies reflect such decay, and based on Dvorak T-numbers, the maximum winds have been reduced to 65 kt, and this could be generous. A large portion of the circulation is already over cooler waters, and this factor, in combination with increasing shear and the presence of dry air should result in additional weakening, as indicated in the NHC forecast. Fernanda is moving toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 8 kt. The cyclone is well embedded within the deep trade winds associated with the southern portion of the subtropical high. This steering pattern will likely persist, so no significant change in track is anticipated. A slight turn toward the west is expected by the end of the forecast period when Fernanda will likely be a shallow cyclone steered by the low-level trades. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and follows very closely the multi-model consensus TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 18.2N 137.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 18.6N 138.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 19.0N 140.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 19.6N 141.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 20.2N 143.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 21.5N 146.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/0000Z 22.5N 151.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/0000Z 23.5N 156.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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