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Hurricane GONZALO Forecast Discussion Number 14
2014-10-15 22:45:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST WED OCT 15 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 152045 TCDAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 500 PM AST WED OCT 15 2014 Gonzalo is not quite as well organized as it was this morning. Satellite images show that the eye of the hurricane appears less distinct than it was earlier today, and radar images from a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft earlier today suggested than the inner eyewall could be eroding. The initial wind speed is lowered to 110 kt based on the slightly degraded appearance of the storm. Another Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Gonzalo this evening and should provide a better assessment of its intensity and structure. The hurricane remains on track and is moving northwestward at about 9 kt. Water vapor images show a large trough over the eastern United States. This trough is expected to move eastward during the next couple of days, which should cause Gonzalo to make a turn toward the north on Thursday and north-northeast on Friday, likely bringing Gonzalo near Bermuda in about 2 days. After that time, a faster northeastward and then east-northeastward motion is predicted over the North Atlantic Ocean. The track model guidance, in general, is a little slower than it was at 1200 UTC and the official forecast has been adjusted accordingly. The guidance is also not quite as tightly clustered as it has been, as the ECMWF has shifted a bit west of the rest of the primary objective aids. The large scale environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable during the next day or so, and the intensity of Gonzalo will likely fluctuate due to eyewall replacement cycles. In about 48 hours, the hurricane is expected to be moving into an atmosphere of increasing southwesterly shear and drier air, and over sharply colder waters. These conditions should cause weakening and post-tropical transition in 3 to 4 days. NOAA buoy 41046 recently reported a pressure of 955 mb, and was quite useful in estimating Gonzalo's minimum pressure. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 24.1N 68.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 25.3N 68.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 27.2N 68.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 29.7N 67.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 32.9N 65.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 41.8N 58.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 51.0N 42.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 20/1800Z 54.0N 20.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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