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Hurricane HERNAN Forecast Discussion Number 7
2014-07-27 22:32:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 272031 TCDEP3 HURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 200 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014 A faint eye was briefly apparent on visible satellite images, and Dvorak classifications from TAFB as well as objective Dvorak intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS support an intensity of 65 kt. Therefore, Hernan is being upgraded to the third hurricane of the 2014 eastern North Pacific season. The system has a quite impressive and symmetrical upper-level outflow pattern at this time. Sea surface temperatures will be decreasing along the path of the tropical cyclone, and vertical shear is expected to gradually increase. Therefore, a weakening trend should commence on Monday. The official intensity forecast closely follows the latest model consensus, ICON. The initial motion remains northwestward, or 305/13. There is no significant change to the track forecast or the reasoning behind it. For the next few days, Hernan will continue to be steered by the flow on the southwest side of a ridge associated with a mid-tropospheric high centered over the southwestern United States. This ridge is forecast to build westward somewhat, which should cause the track of Hernan to gradually shift toward the west-northwest. By the latter part of the forecast period, the weakening and increasingly shallow cyclone is likely to turn westward following the lower-tropospheric steering flow. The official track forecast is very close to the track model consensus, TVCN, and is basically an update of the previous NHC forecast. Based on a recent ASCAT overpass, only slight adjustments to the wind radii were required. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 18.6N 112.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 19.7N 113.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 21.2N 116.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 22.6N 118.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 23.4N 120.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 24.2N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 31/1800Z 24.5N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1800Z 24.5N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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