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Hurricane Isaac Forecast Advisory Number 7
2024-09-27 16:32:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 271432 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102024 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 46.8W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 150SE 150SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 46.8W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 47.7W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 38.1N 44.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 20SE 15SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 39.4N 40.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 20SE 15SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 41.0N 38.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 20SE 15SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 55SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...170NE 130SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 42.4N 36.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 20SE 15SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 55SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 130SE 110SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 43.7N 35.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 55SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT...180NE 130SE 110SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 44.8N 33.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 35SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 130SE 110SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 48.0N 29.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...190NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 52.1N 25.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 80SW 0NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.4N 46.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm John Forecast Advisory Number 19
2024-09-27 16:32:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 271432 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 103.0W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 25SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 140SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 330SE 330SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 103.0W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 102.9W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.8N 103.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 10NE 80SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.4N 105.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.9N 106.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.4N 108.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 103.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 27/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Helene Public Advisory Number 16A
2024-09-27 13:52:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 271152 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 800 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 ...HELENE PRODUCING DAMAGING GUSTY WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY IN EFFECT FOR METROPOLITAN ATLANTA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.2N 83.0W ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSW OF CLEMSON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF ATLANTA GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning along the Florida Gulf Coast from the mouth of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning along the east coast of Florida and extreme southeastern Georgia from the Flagler/Volusia County Line to Altamaha Sound has been discontinued. The Storm Surge Warning for the Florida coast has been discontinued south of the Middle of Longboat Key. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Middle of Longboat Key, Florida * Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Altamaha Sound northward to Little River Inlet A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 83.0 West. Helene is moving toward the north near 30 mph (48 km/h). Helene is expected to turn northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee Valley later today and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, and Helene is expected to become a post-tropical low this afternoon or tonight. However, damaging wind gusts will penetrate far inland across the southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) mainly to the east of the center. An observation in Brasstown Bald, Georgia recently reported a wind gust of 72 mph (116 km/h). An observation in Dewees Island, South Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a gust of 62 mph (100 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 972 mb (28.70 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...5-10 ft Indian Pass, FL to Aucilla River, FL...3-6 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring along much of the Georgia and South Carolina coasts, and these conditions will continue for the next several hours. Strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts, will also continue as far inland as the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians. RAINFALL: Over portions of the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern Appalachians, Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals around 20 inches. This rainfall will likely result in catastrophic and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with significant and record river flooding. Numerous significant landslides are expected in steep terrain across the southern Appalachians. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible this morning over parts of eastern Georgia, and through this afternoon over the Carolinas and southern Virginia. SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Harrigan
Category: Transportation and Logistics