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Hurricane Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 10
2024-09-28 10:40:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Sat Sep 28 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 280840 TCDAT5 Hurricane Isaac Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024 900 AM GMT Sat Sep 28 2024 Isaac has continued to strengthen this morning. The satellite presentation consists of a 20 nm (WMG 8C) clear eye and an impressive curve band in the north side of the cyclone beneath the upper diffluent westerlies. The initial intensity is bumped up to 90 kt for this advisory and is based on a UW-CIMSS SATCON analysis of 93 kt and the Dvorak intensity estimates for TAFB and SAB. Some fluctuations in strength are possible during the day, after which Isaac will be traversing cooler oceanic surface temperatures and experiencing increasing deep-layer shear. Subsequently, gradual weakening is forecast, and the cyclone is expected to lose its deep core convection and become a post-tropical cyclone in 48 hrs. After that time, the global model fields and the FSU Cyclone Phase Evolution forecast show Isaac transitioning from a symmetric warm-core system to an asymmetric cold-core, more frontal thermal structure. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the consensus aids and shows Isaac completing its extratropical cyclone transition by Tuesday. Isaac has turned toward the northeast, or 055/17 kt, in response to a mid-latitude shortwave ridge temporarily building to the north of the cyclone. By early next week, as Isaac loses its tropical characteristics and completes an extratropical transition, the cyclone should turn toward the north-northeast while a major shortwave trough approaches from the northwest over the central Atlantic. The official track forecast is adjusted a little to the right of the previous forecast beyond 48 hrs to agree more with the TVCA and HCCA consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 39.3N 41.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 40.4N 39.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 42.1N 37.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 43.5N 35.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 44.6N 33.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 30/1800Z 46.0N 31.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 01/0600Z 48.0N 30.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/0600Z 52.5N 30.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 03/0600Z 55.7N 28.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Roberts
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Isaac Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2024-09-28 10:39:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 28 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 280839 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102024 0900 UTC SAT SEP 28 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Hurricane Isaac (AT5/AL102024)
2024-09-28 10:38:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ISAAC CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...LARGE AREA OF DANGEROUS HIGH SEAS SPREADING SOUTH OF THE HURRICANE... As of 9:00 AM GMT Sat Sep 28 the center of Isaac was located near 39.3, -41.3 with movement NE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics