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Tropical Storm Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 4
2024-09-28 10:37:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 280835 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 500 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2024 Satellite imagery this morning indicates that Joyce has changed little in organization since the last advisory, with the low-level center located on the southern edge of the convection due to southerly shear. Satellite intensity estimates are clustered near 45 kt and have changed little during the past 6 h, and based on this the initial intensity remains 45 kt. The initial motion is just a little to the right of the previous motion, 305/9 kt. Joyce is on the south side of a narrow subtropical ridge, which is going to weaken and break as a deep-layer trough amplifies over the central Atlantic during the next few days. This evolution should cause Joyce to move slowly to the west-northwest and northwest for a couple of days, followed by an even slower motion toward the north. The track guidance is in generally good agreement through 48 h, but after that time there is some divergence due to a couple of the regional hurricane models forecasting a stronger Joyce to recurve into the aforementioned trough. As with the previous advisory, the track forecast calls for a weaker Joyce to move slowly and not be fully picked up by the trough, and the new forecast track has no significant changes from the previous forecast. Joyce is experiencing moderate southerly shear, and the global models forecast this to continue for the next several days. In addition, the storm will be moving into a gradually drier and subsident environment. Thus, the new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast in calling for little change in strength during the next 12 hours, followed by gradual weakening. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Joyce will lose its convection and become a remnant low by day 3, if not sooner. The remnant low should degenerate into a trough by day 4 or 5, with the remnants subsequently being absorbed by another system approaching from the east. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 19.5N 45.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 20.0N 46.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 20.5N 48.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 21.1N 49.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 21.7N 49.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 30/1800Z 22.3N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 22.6N 49.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/0600Z 23.0N 50.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm Joyce (AT1/AL112024)
2024-09-28 10:37:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOYCE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 28 the center of Joyce was located near 19.5, -45.3 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Joyce Public Advisory Number 4
2024-09-28 10:37:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 280834 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 500 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2024 ...JOYCE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 45.3W ABOUT 1165 MI...1875 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 45.3 West. Joyce is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a west-northwestward to northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Sunday. A slow turn toward the northwest and north is forecast Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. Weakening is forecast to begin tonight or on Sunday, and Joyce could degenerate into a remnant low by early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics