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Hurricane Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 11
2024-09-28 16:31:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM GMT Sat Sep 28 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 281431 TCDAT5 Hurricane Isaac Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024 300 PM GMT Sat Sep 28 2024 Isaac's strengthening trend from the past day or so appears to have leveled off. Isaac still has a clear eye and a relatively symmetric appearance, although some dry air entrainment is evident coming in from the southwest. Intensity estimates range from 77 to 93 kt, and initial intensity has been held at 90 kt, in agreement with TAFB's Dvorak classification of 5.0. The wind radii have been modified to reflect values from 1245 UTC ASCAT-B pass. Isaac is already over relatively cool water and will reach progressively lower SSTs in the coming day or two, all while encountering increasingly hostile shear. Thus, Isaac's intensity has most likely peaked, and gradual weakening today is forecast to accelerate through the weekend. This weakening will coincide with an extratropical transition, which based on global models, will complete in about 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast remains unchanged from the previous forecast and is in close agreement with consensus aids through the forecast period. Isaac is moving east-northeastward, 060/17 kt. Steering flow should decrease as Isaac passes in the vicinity of a mid- to upper- level ridge over the next day or so, which should lead to slower forward motion through the remainder of its warm-core existence. As Isaac becomes extratropical, it should turn more northerly as a shortwave trough digs to the west of the cyclone. The official track forecast remains unchanged through 48 hours but has again trended to the right of the previous forecast beyond 48 hours to adjust closer to consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 40.2N 39.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 41.4N 37.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 42.9N 36.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 44.0N 33.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 45.4N 31.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 01/0000Z 47.1N 29.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 01/1200Z 49.6N 28.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/1200Z 53.5N 28.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 03/1200Z 56.6N 25.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Konarik/Cangialosi
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Hurricane Isaac (AT5/AL102024)
2024-09-28 16:31:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ISAAC REMAINS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 3:00 PM GMT Sat Sep 28 the center of Isaac was located near 40.2, -39.7 with movement ENE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Isaac Public Advisory Number 11
2024-09-28 16:31:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM GMT Sat Sep 28 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 281431 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Isaac Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024 300 PM GMT Sat Sep 28 2024 ...ISAAC REMAINS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.2N 39.7W ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM WNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Isaac was located near latitude 40.2 North, longitude 39.7 West. Isaac is moving toward the east-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h) and a decrease in forward speed and a turn to the northeast is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, and Isaac is expected to be a post-tropical cyclone on Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Isaac and a large wind fetch from a deep-layer trough will affect the Azores over the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Konarik/Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics