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Hurricane Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 12
2024-10-02 16:47:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 021447 TCMAT2 HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 43.0W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......170NE 180SE 70SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 120SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 43.0W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 42.6W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.0N 44.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.2N 45.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.3N 47.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.7N 48.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.4N 49.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 26.7N 50.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 120SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 32.7N 49.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...220NE 230SE 150SW 170NW. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 39.6N 42.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...140NE 150SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT...250NE 290SE 250SW 190NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 43.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Thirteen Graphics
2024-10-02 16:47:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 14:47:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 14:47:03 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Discussion Number 1
2024-10-02 16:45:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM CVT Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 021445 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 200 PM CVT Wed Oct 02 2024 The system we have been monitoring several hundred miles to the southwest of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands has become gradually better organized this morning with some curved bands organizing to the west of the estimated center. Visible satellite images show that at least a broad closed circulation has developed. Based on the latest subjective Dvorak fixes of T2.5/35-kt from TAFB and T1.5/25-kt from SAB, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Thirteen, with an initial intensity in between these estimates at 30 kt. The depressions initial motion appears to be slowly due west, at 270/6 kt. Over the next day or two this motion should continue, though some of the track guidance actually shows a south of due west motion, partially related to the steering flow and also the possibility that the center might try to reform underneath deep convective bursts in the southern semicircle. After 48 h, the guidance shows TD13 turning west-northwestward and then northwestward by the end of the forecast as mid-level ridging becomes more eroded on its northwestern side while a large long-wave trough becomes established over the Northwest Atlantic. The initial NHC track forecast has opted to favor a track close to the consensus aid TVCN. Interestingly, both the GFS and ECMWF are on the east side of the guidance, while HCCA is on the western side by the end of the forecast period. Intensity wise, initial strengthening could be on the slower end, as the system has to deal with some northwesterly shear related of the outflow from the much larger Hurricane Kirk impinging upon the system. However, the guidance insists this shear will soon decrease, especially after 24-36 h where the upper-level flow seems to split off into a cutoff low to the southwest, and a upper-level trough that shifts east of the depression, leaving the depression in a more favorable upper-level diffluent pattern. After TD13's inner core become better defined, the rate of intensification could increase after 36 h, and the latest NHC intensity forecast forecasts the depression to become a hurricane in 3 days. Additional intensification is forecast after that point as long as the cyclone tracks far enough away from the cold ocean wake left behind by Kirk. This forecast is roughly in the mean of the intensity guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 10.6N 29.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 10.5N 29.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 10.2N 30.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 10.2N 31.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 10.4N 33.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 11.0N 34.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 11.7N 35.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 13.5N 38.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 16.5N 41.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics