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Hurricane Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 24
2024-10-05 10:39:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 050839 TCMAT2 HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0900 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 50.2W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......190NE 180SE 120SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 360SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 50.2W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 50.1W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 28.4N 50.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 31.9N 49.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...210NE 220SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 35.7N 46.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 240SE 170SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 39.2N 42.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT...130NE 140SE 110SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 200SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 42.0N 36.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT...120NE 150SE 130SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 220SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 43.4N 28.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 140SE 130SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 270SE 230SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 45.5N 10.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 70SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 210SE 210SW 130NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 52.0N 4.5E...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 150SW 200NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 50.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Leslie Graphics
2024-10-05 10:39:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2024 08:39:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2024 08:39:02 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 12
2024-10-05 10:37:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 050837 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 A 0552 UTC SSMIS microwave pass showed that Leslie still has a well-defined mid-level eye, and deep convection continues to burst over the center. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are both T4.0/65 kt, while objective numbers are overall a bit higher than that. Therefore, Leslie's intensity is now estimated to be 70 kt. Leslie continues to move slowly west-northwestward (290/6 kt), with the cyclone still located along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge. The ridge is expected to remain entrenched and strengthen over the eastern Atlantic during the next several days, which should cause Leslie to move northwestward and accelerate a bit by Tuesday and Wednesday. The NHC forecast is close to a blend of the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids, and nearly lies on top of the previous prediction. The intensity forecast is the most challenging part of this advisory. Deep-layer shear is relatively low at the moment and should remain so for the next 24 hours or so. This is the period where the NHC forecast shows additional strengthening, and is close to the statistical-dynamical models near the top end of the guidance. Increased shear, combined with Leslie potentially moving over Kirk's cold wake, could cause some weakening after 24 hours. All of the intensity models support this scenario, however they differ significantly in how much weakening will occur. The NHC forecast continues to show Leslie maintaining hurricane status through day 5, mainly following the SHIPS model. However, the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids, as well as several of the hurricane regional models, suggest that Leslie could weaken below hurricane intensity by 48 hours. Downward adjustments to the intensity forecast may be required in future advisories if this trend continues. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 10.7N 34.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 11.2N 35.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 12.1N 36.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 13.2N 38.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 14.6N 39.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 07/1800Z 15.9N 41.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 17.4N 43.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 20.2N 46.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 22.3N 49.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
Category: Transportation and Logistics