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Hurricane Kirk Public Advisory Number 24
2024-10-05 10:39:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 050839 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 ...KIRK REMAINS A POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.2N 50.2W ABOUT 990 MI...1595 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1575 MI...2535 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Kirk. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 50.2 West. Kirk is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn to the north is expected today, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Kirk is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast through early next week, but Kirk will remain a large hurricane for the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, and the Greater Antilles. These swells are expected to spread westward to the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas Saturday night and Sunday, and to the Azores on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Leslie Graphics
2024-10-05 10:39:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2024 08:39:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2024 08:39:02 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 12
2024-10-05 10:37:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 050837 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 A 0552 UTC SSMIS microwave pass showed that Leslie still has a well-defined mid-level eye, and deep convection continues to burst over the center. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are both T4.0/65 kt, while objective numbers are overall a bit higher than that. Therefore, Leslie's intensity is now estimated to be 70 kt. Leslie continues to move slowly west-northwestward (290/6 kt), with the cyclone still located along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge. The ridge is expected to remain entrenched and strengthen over the eastern Atlantic during the next several days, which should cause Leslie to move northwestward and accelerate a bit by Tuesday and Wednesday. The NHC forecast is close to a blend of the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids, and nearly lies on top of the previous prediction. The intensity forecast is the most challenging part of this advisory. Deep-layer shear is relatively low at the moment and should remain so for the next 24 hours or so. This is the period where the NHC forecast shows additional strengthening, and is close to the statistical-dynamical models near the top end of the guidance. Increased shear, combined with Leslie potentially moving over Kirk's cold wake, could cause some weakening after 24 hours. All of the intensity models support this scenario, however they differ significantly in how much weakening will occur. The NHC forecast continues to show Leslie maintaining hurricane status through day 5, mainly following the SHIPS model. However, the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids, as well as several of the hurricane regional models, suggest that Leslie could weaken below hurricane intensity by 48 hours. Downward adjustments to the intensity forecast may be required in future advisories if this trend continues. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 10.7N 34.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 11.2N 35.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 12.1N 36.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 13.2N 38.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 14.6N 39.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 07/1800Z 15.9N 41.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 17.4N 43.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 20.2N 46.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 22.3N 49.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
Category: Transportation and Logistics