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Hurricane Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 28
2024-10-06 10:50:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 060850 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 Kirk continues to show the ill effects of increasing southwesterly shear. Earlier scatterometer data and recent satellite images suggest the hurricane is vertically tilted, with the low-level center displaced to the southwest of the mid-level circulation. The eye feature that was evident earlier today has filled, and satellite intensity estimates are decreasing. Kirk's initial intensity is estimated to be 90 kt, in best agreement with a T5.0 Dvorak Current Intensity estimate from TAFB and recent UW-CIMSS D-MINT and D-PRINT estimates. The wind radii of Kirk were made slightly larger based on partial data from a 0014 UTC ASCAT-C overpass. Kirk is expected to continue weakening during the next several days due to the negative influences of increasing vertical wind shear, decreasing SSTs, and a progressively drier mid-level environment. However, the expansive wind field of Kirk should remain large while the cyclone acquires frontal characteristics and transitions to an extratropical cyclone by 48 h. It is possible that the hostile conditions could cause Kirk to lose organized convection and become post-tropical even sooner than forecast. The updated NHC intensity forecast was adjusted downward to follow the latest HCCA and IVCN consensus trends. The hurricane is moving north-northeastward (015/20 kt) within the flow between an eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge and a deep-layer trough to the west of Kirk. The various track models agree that Kirk will continue accelerating deeper into the mid-latitudes while turning northeastward and east-northwestward over the next few days. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous prediction, showing the center of Kirk passing north of the Azores Monday night into Tuesday as an extratropical cyclone and moving over western Europe during the middle of the week. Large swells from Kirk are propagating far away from the hurricane and bringing an increased risk of dangerous surf and rip currents to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are expected to spread toward the Azores on Monday. For more information on this hazard, see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 33.5N 49.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 36.2N 47.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 39.6N 42.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 42.2N 36.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 43.4N 29.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 08/1800Z 43.9N 20.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/0600Z 45.5N 10.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/0600Z 51.5N 7.5E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Hurricane Kirk (AT2/AL122024)
2024-10-06 10:49:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KIRK ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... ...LARGE SWELLS ARE PRODUCING AN INCREASED RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Oct 6 the center of Kirk was located near 33.5, -49.0 with movement NNE at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 957 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Kirk Public Advisory Number 28
2024-10-06 10:49:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 060849 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 ...KIRK ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... ...LARGE SWELLS ARE PRODUCING AN INCREASED RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.5N 49.0W ABOUT 1270 MI...2040 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Kirk. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 33.5 North, longitude 49.0 West. Kirk is moving toward the north-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h). An acceleration toward the northeast and east-northeast is expected over the next few days while Kirk moves across the northeastern Atlantic. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Although weakening is expected through midweek, Kirk will remain a large hurricane for the next next day or so before transitioning to an extratropical cyclone by early Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the east coast of the United States. These swells will continue spreading northward along the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada today, and to the Azores on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category: Transportation and Logistics