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Hurricane Kirk Public Advisory Number 28
2024-10-06 10:49:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 060849 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 ...KIRK ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... ...LARGE SWELLS ARE PRODUCING AN INCREASED RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.5N 49.0W ABOUT 1270 MI...2040 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Kirk. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 33.5 North, longitude 49.0 West. Kirk is moving toward the north-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h). An acceleration toward the northeast and east-northeast is expected over the next few days while Kirk moves across the northeastern Atlantic. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Although weakening is expected through midweek, Kirk will remain a large hurricane for the next next day or so before transitioning to an extratropical cyclone by early Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the east coast of the United States. These swells will continue spreading northward along the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada today, and to the Azores on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Milton Forecast Discussion Number 4
2024-10-06 10:48:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 060848 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Milton Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Satellite imagery this morning suggests that Milton is getting better organized, with the central dense overcast getting larger and some outer banding forming in the western semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates currently range between 30-45 kt, and based on this and the increasing organization the initial intensity is set at 45 kt. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate Milton. Milton has turned eastward with the initial motion of 090/4 kt. Westerly flow on the south side of a shortwave trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico should steer the storm generally eastward during the next 36-48 h. After that, a second trough moving over the northwestern Gulf should cause the storm to turn northeastward toward the Florida Peninsula at a faster forward speed. While the track guidance is generally in good agreement on this scenario, there remains some spread in both the track and forward speed, so it is too early to specify which portions of the Florida Peninsula will get the worst impacts. After crossing Florida, Milton should turn eastward over the Atlantic in the mid-latitude westerly flow. The new forecast track is nudged a little south of the previous track and lies between the GFS and ECMWF models. It should be noted that the average NHC track error at day 4 is around 150 miles. Therefore, users are reminded to not focus on the exact track. The intensity forecast has a lot of complexities. First, Milton is a small cyclone, and such systems can both strengthen and weaken very rapidly. Second, while the cyclone is going to be in a favorable environment through about 60 h, it will encounter strong shear and dry air entrainment after that time. Third, the proximity of a frontal system over the northern Gulf of Mexico and Florida suggests the possibility that Milton will undergo extratropical transition at some point during the forecast period. The intensity guidance continues to show a significant spread in the forecast peak intensity in 60-72 h, with possibilities ranging from category 1 to category 5 strength. Also, some of the intensity guidance forecasts Milton to rapidly weaken over water after peak intensity, while other models suggest the storm will only weaken slightly. The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance and shows Milton reaching a peak intensity of 105 kt at 72 h. However, this is below the intensity consensus, and it would not be surprising if the storm gets stronger. Milton is expected to weaken and start extratropical transition while over Florida, with the transition completed by 120 h. Regardless of the details, there is increasing confidence that a powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week. Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen to local officials. Key Messages: 1. Milton is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week. Hurricane Watches could be issued as early as late today for portions of Florida. 2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to the forecast. 3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday and Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 23.0N 94.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 23.0N 94.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 22.9N 92.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 22.9N 91.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 23.4N 89.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 08/1800Z 24.5N 87.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 26.0N 85.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 29.0N 80.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 31.0N 74.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Milton Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2024-10-06 10:45:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 060845 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 0900 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 6(38) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 3(15) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 7(43) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 4(18) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 6(28) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 3(37) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 6(42) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 36(41) 4(45) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 1(18) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 37(41) 5(46) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 46(52) 6(58) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 5(25) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 46(52) 7(59) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 4(25) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 40(46) 5(51) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 4(19) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 31(38) 3(41) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 25(32) 2(34) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 1(18) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 1(17) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 14(28) 1(29) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 13(34) 1(35) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 31(55) 1(56) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) X(22) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 28(42) 2(44) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) X(17) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 41(71) 1(72) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 29(38) 1(39) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 1(20) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 48(69) 3(72) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 31(36) 2(38) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 1(21) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 43(56) 3(59) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 2(32) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 1(17) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 1(17) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 2(22) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 20(33) 1(34) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 1(15) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 24(45) 1(46) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) X(22) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15(25) 1(26) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 9(24) 1(25) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 12(15) 3(18) X(18) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 8(16) X(16) X(16) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 5(29) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 1(24) X(24) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category: Transportation and Logistics