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Hurricane Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 32
2024-10-07 10:39:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 070839 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 900 AM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024 Kirk has almost completed extratropical transition. The inner core of the system has basically collapsed and deep convection is limited to the northern half of the circulation. The system is moving into a baroclinic zone, and it is expected to be an extratropical cyclone later today. The initial intensity is nudged downward to 65 kt based on a blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates. Strong shear, dry air, cool waters, and a decrease in upper-level dynamics should cause Kirk to gradually lose strength. However, the system's wind field will remain large and Kirk is still expected to be a strong extratropical low during the next couple of days. The intensity forecast is in good agreement with the latest GFS solution. Kirk is gradually turning to the right, and the latest initial motion is 050/26 kt. A turn to the east-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days as the system moves within the fast mid-latitude westerly flow. This should take the extratropical low to the north of the Azores on Tuesday and across western Europe on Wednesday. Although Kirk is over the open ocean, it is still producing large swells that could lead to life-threatening rip currents across portions of the Caribbean, Bermuda, the east coast of the U.S., and Atlantic Canada. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 40.2N 41.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 42.2N 36.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 08/0600Z 43.4N 29.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 08/1800Z 43.5N 21.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/0600Z 43.9N 11.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 09/1800Z 46.0N 2.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Hurricane Kirk (AT2/AL122024)
2024-10-07 10:39:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KIRK ALMOST AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE... ...STILL CAUSING LARGE SWELLS AND RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST... As of 9:00 AM GMT Mon Oct 7 the center of Kirk was located near 40.2, -41.0 with movement NE at 30 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Kirk Public Advisory Number 32
2024-10-07 10:39:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024 837 WTNT32 KNHC 070839 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 900 AM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024 ...KIRK ALMOST AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE... ...STILL CAUSING LARGE SWELLS AND RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.2N 41.0W ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM WNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Kirk. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 40.2 North, longitude 41.0 West. Kirk is moving toward the northeast near 30 mph (48 km/h). An even faster east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Although gradual weakening is expected, Kirk is forecast to become a large and strong extratropical low during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, portions of Atlantic Canada, and the Azores. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics