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Hurricane Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2024-10-03 22:39:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 032039 PWSAT2 HURRICANE KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 2100 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18) $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 6
2024-10-03 22:39:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 032038 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 Leslie is becoming better organized this afternoon, but continues to battle wind shear due to the outflow from Hurricane Kirk. The center is becoming more well-defined on visible satellite imagery and convection is increasing along the southern semi-circle. Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB show a Data-T number of 3.0, corresponding with the initial intensity of 45 kt. The tropical storm is drifting westward at 270/5 kt along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge in the eastern Atlantic. Leslie is forecast to move slowly westward over the next day or so before gradually turning west-northwestward, then accelerating to the northwest this weekend. Model guidance has shifted slightly westward, and the official NHC track forecast has followed suit and lies near the simple consensus aids. Leslie has been slowly strengthening today. Steady strengthening is expected over the next 36-48 hr as the shear from Hurricane Kirk lessen, and Leslie moves through a more favorable atmospheric and oceanic environment. The spread in model intensity guidance has increased this afternoon, and the hurricane models have suggested the potential for rapid strengthening. The official NHC intensity forecast lies near the simple consensus aids, although it still lies below some of the regional hurricane models and HCCA. The intensity forecast will plateau by the end of the forecast period as Leslie moves into the cold wake of Kirk. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 10.1N 31.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 10.2N 32.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 10.5N 33.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 10.9N 35.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 11.7N 36.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 12.6N 37.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 13.7N 39.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 16.3N 42.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 19.3N 45.6W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132024)
2024-10-03 22:38:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Oct 3 the center of Leslie was located near 10.1, -31.5 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics