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Hurricane LESTER Forecast Discussion Number 10
2016-08-27 04:50:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 26 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 270250 TCDEP3 HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 26 2016 The satellite presentation has been gradually improving during the past few hours, and an eye became evident on the 0200 UTC night visible image. A convective ring was also observed on the last SSMI microwave pass at 2344 UTC. On this basis, and a Dvorak estimate from TAFB, the initial wind speed has been increased to 65 kt. Additional intensification is anticipated during the next 2 to 3 days while the cyclone continues to move over warm waters and is embedded within light shear. By the end of the forecast period, Lester will probably begin to weaken due to entrainment of drier air. The NHC forecast follows very closely the model consensus, and shows Lester as a hurricane moving into the Central Pacific in about 5 days. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 280 degrees at 8 kt. Lester is embedded within a deep-layer easterly flow on the south side of an amplifying subtropical ridge extending from the Baja California peninsula westward across the Pacific. This pattern strongly favors the continuation of a westward motion for the next five days with some increase in forward speed. The steering flow is forecast to be so well established that track models are basically on top of each other, increasing the confidence in the forecast. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the tighter-than- normal guidance envelope, and does not deviate much from the previous NHC prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 17.9N 116.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 18.0N 117.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 18.1N 119.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 18.2N 122.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 18.2N 124.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 18.5N 130.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 18.5N 136.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 01/0000Z 18.0N 140.8W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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