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Hurricane LESTER Forecast Discussion Number 14
2016-08-28 04:50:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 280250 TCDEP3 HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016 Lester has gone through some impressive changes this evening. The well-developed eye has disappeared during the past couple of hours on satellite images, with decreasing convection noted in the eastern eyewall. A blend of the Dvorak estimates from all agencies supported increasing the winds to 95 kt at the synoptic time, but I have elected to show an initial wind speed of 90 kt given the recent degradation on satellite. The hurricane should be in a low-shear, marginal-moisture environment for the next several days, with only gradually decreasing water temperatures expected as Lester moves nearly parallel to the typical eastern Pacific SST gradient. Most of the guidance suggest that Lester's intensity will peak within the next 24 hours, then slowly fall. This is a trickier forecast than it seems because the forecast environmental conditions are reminiscent of those necessary for an annular hurricane, which would likely keep Lester stronger than much of the guidance. At this point, given the recent satellite trends, the official intensity prediction is kept the same as the previous one, a bit higher than the intensity consensus. The initial motion estimate remains 270/11. A strong subtropical ridge to the north of Lester should steer the cyclone on a westward course for at least the next 3 to 4 days. After that time, uncertainties increase with both the strength of the ridge and any potential binary interaction with Madeline. There have been very little changes to the overall guidance suite, and the new NHC track forecast is near the previous one, nudged a bit to the west at longer ranges. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 18.0N 120.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 18.1N 122.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 18.2N 125.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 18.3N 128.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 18.4N 131.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 18.6N 136.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 18.7N 140.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 19.5N 145.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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