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Hurricane LESTER Forecast Discussion Number 15
2016-08-28 10:43:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 28 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 280843 TCDEP3 HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Lester's cloud pattern is not as well organized as it was late yesterday. The distribution of deep convection within the hurricane's central dense overcast has become asymmetric and an eye is no longer visible. Despite Lester's degraded appearance in conventional satellite imagery, microwave data from several hours ago suggested that Lester was generally maintaining its inner-core structure. Dvorak T-numbers have decreased since the last advisory. A blend of Final T- and CI-numbers from both satellite agencies supports lowering the initial intensity estimate to 85 kt. The initial motion estimate is 270/12. A strong subtropical ridge should steer Lester just north of due-west for the next 3 to 4 days. Longer term, uncertainty regarding the strength of the subtropical ridge north of Lester and any potential binary interaction with Madeline come into play. This uncertainty seems to be less than in previous cycles, however, with the GFS and ECMWF now much closer at 96 and 120 hours. The new NHC track is close to a blend of these two models throughout the forecast period and is just a bit to the south of the previous forecast at those times. It is not clear what interrupted Lester's intensification. Regardless, Lester should be in a low-shear, marginally moist environment and over only gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures during the next few days. Assuming that the hurricane continues to retain its inner-core structure, this could allow Lester to re-intensify some during the next 12 to 24 hours before it encounters even drier mid-level air. However, none of the intensity guidance shows this possibility, and instead shows slow weakening for the remainder of the forecast period. The intensity forecast is a challenging one, and is of overall low confidence. It shows little change in strength in the short term and is slightly above the consensus aids, but is then near the multi-model consensus after that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 17.9N 122.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 17.9N 124.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 18.1N 126.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 18.2N 129.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 18.4N 132.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 31/0600Z 18.4N 137.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 18.6N 142.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 02/0600Z 19.4N 147.1W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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