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Hurricane LESTER Forecast Discussion Number 17
2016-08-28 22:36:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 28 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 282035 TCDEP3 HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 28 2016 The cloud pattern has not changed very much during the day and the convection has been fluctuating in intensity. Occasionally, an eye feature has been observed on conventional imagery. Dvorak estimates, both objective and subjective, have not changed since this morning and still support an initial intensity of 75 kt. The shear environment appears to be favorable for Lester to intensify, but SSTs along the hurricane track are decreasing slightly. Given these two opposing factors, the NHC forecast calls for no change in intensity during the next 5 days. This forecast follows very closely the intensity consensus model. Lester is moving westward or 270 degrees at 11 kt. The hurricane is embedded within a deep layer of easterly flow on the south side of a persistent subtropical ridge across the Pacific. Given the well established steering flow, the track guidance continues to be tightly packed, and this increases the confidence in the future motion of the hurricane. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and is basically on top of the multi-model consensus TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 17.8N 124.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 17.8N 126.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 18.0N 129.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 18.0N 132.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 18.0N 134.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 31/1800Z 18.0N 139.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 18.5N 143.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 02/1800Z 19.5N 148.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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