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Hurricane LESTER Forecast Discussion Number 18
2016-08-29 04:52:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 28 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 290252 TCDEP3 HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 28 2016 After appearing steady state throughout the day, the cloud pattern of Lester has become a little better organized during the past couple of hours with an eye apparent once again in satellite images. The initial wind speed is held at 75 kt for this advisory, in agreement with the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, but this could be a little conservative. The environmental parameters for intensification are mixed. Although the shear is expected to be light to moderate during the next several days, marginally warm sea surface temperatures and intrusions of dry air could negate the influence of the low shear. Based on the current trend and expected conditions, some slight strengthening is shown in the short term followed by a very slow weakening thereafter. This forecast is in close agreement with the intensity model consensus and is not too different from the previous NHC forecast. The hurricane is moving westward about 12 kt on the south side of a strong high pressure system. Lester is expected to remain to the south of mid-level ridging during the next several days, and that should keep the system moving westward at about the same forward speed. The model guidance is in good agreement, and only small changes were made to the previous NHC track prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 17.9N 126.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 18.0N 128.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 18.1N 131.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 18.2N 133.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 18.2N 136.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 18.1N 140.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 18.5N 145.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 03/0000Z 19.7N 150.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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