je.st
news
Hurricane LESTER Forecast Discussion Number 19
2016-08-29 10:53:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON AUG 29 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 290853 TCDEP3 HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016 200 AM PDT MON AUG 29 2016 Lester has made a comeback. A ragged eye that had formed around the time of the last advisory has cleared out and warmed significantly. The hurricane's central dense overcast has also expanded and become more axisymmetric while the cyclone has shed its outer bands. Overall, the characteristics exhibited by Lester are those that typify annular hurricanes. The Dvorak T-number from TAFB increased to T5.5/102 kt at 0600 UTC, with the latest UW-CIMSS ADT values around T5.4/100 kt. Given these data, the initial intensity estimate is raised to 100 kt, making Lester the fourth major hurricane of the 2016 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. The initial motion estimate is 270/13. A strong subtropical ridge north of Lester should continue to steer the hurricane nearly due west for the next 3 days. After that time, a probable binary interaction with Madeline should result in a west-northwestward shift in the cyclone's heading as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands. Except for the UKMET and HWRF models, the guidance is relatively tightly clustered through 5 days. The NHC track forecast is nearly identical to the previous one and is closest to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF solutions. In general, Lester should be embedded in a light easterly shear environment during the next several days while it moves over nearly constant sea surface temperatures between 26-27 deg C. These conditions suggest that Lester could maintain its current annular characteristics for some time, even though the large-scale environment is only marginally conducive for it to do so. Lester's current intensification phase has caused the NHC intensity forecast to be increased quite a bit over the previous one. It is also above nearly all of the guidance throughout the period, especially in the short term, given the tendency of forecasts for annular hurricanes to overestimate their future filling rate. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 18.0N 127.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 18.0N 129.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 18.1N 132.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 18.1N 134.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 18.1N 137.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 18.2N 141.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 18.7N 146.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 03/0600Z 20.2N 151.4W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||