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Hurricane LESTER Forecast Discussion Number 22
2016-08-30 04:36:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON AUG 29 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 300236 TCDEP3 HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016 800 PM PDT MON AUG 29 2016 Lester is a powerful category 4 hurricane. The eye of the hurricane, which is now about 20 n mi wide, has expanded and cleared out during the last several hours. Visible satellite images also indicate that mesovorticies exist within the eye. The convective pattern has been very symmetric, and the hurricane continues to have an annular appearance in satellite images. The latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were 6.5/127 kt and 5.5/102 kt, respectively. Based on these estimates and automated Dvorak values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin, the initial wind speed is raised a little to 120 kt. Lester is estimated to have strengthened at an impressive rate of 45 kt during the past 24 hours. The major hurricane is likely near its peak intensity, but fluctuations in strength are possible in the short term. Beyond that time, marginally warm sea surface temperatures and a stable air mass suggest that Lester will likely weaken gradually during the next several days. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and is fairly close to the intensity model consensus. Lester continues to move due westward about 12 kt on the south side of a strong mid-level high pressure system. A continued westward track at about the same forward speed is predicted during the next few days while the system remains to the south of the ridge. After that time, a slight turn toward the west-northwest is likely due to some interaction with another tropical cyclone, Madeline, to its west-southwest. The models remain tightly clustered, and the NHC official track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. This forecast takes Lester close to the Hawaiian Islands in about 5 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 18.1N 131.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 18.2N 133.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 18.2N 136.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 18.3N 138.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 18.3N 140.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 19.0N 145.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 20.3N 149.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 22.0N 154.8W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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