je.st
news
Hurricane LESTER Forecast Discussion Number 25
2016-08-30 22:35:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 302035 TCDEP3 HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2016 The weakening trend of Lester appears to have stopped for the time being. Satellite images show a well-defined 15 n mi diameter eye surrounded by a solid ring of deep convection. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were both 5.5/102 kt and automated values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are 5.9/112 kt. Based on these data, the initial wind speed is held at 105 kt for this advisory. The environment ahead of Lester is not hostile, but slightly lower sea-surface temperatures and drier air along its track should cause the hurricane to gradually weaken through the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous one and stays near the intensity model consensus. The major hurricane is now moving a little south of due west at 12 kt. A strong mid-level ridge over the east-central subtropical Pacific should continue to steer Lester westward for the next couple of days. After that time, a slight turn to the west-northwest is predicted, due to possible binary interaction with Madeline, when Lester moves near or just north of the Hawaiian Islands in 3-5 days. The NHC track forecast is a little to the south of the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 17.8N 135.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 17.8N 137.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 17.9N 139.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 18.1N 141.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 18.5N 143.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 19.9N 148.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 21.5N 153.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 23.3N 158.3W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||