je.st
news
Hurricane LESTER Forecast Discussion Number 26
2016-08-31 04:56:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 310256 TCDEP3 HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2016 Lester has shown a sudden reintensification this evening as a symmetric eyewall with very cold cloud tops is encircling a 25 nm diameter warm eye. Subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB are at 6.5 and 6.0 current intensity numbers, respectively, while the CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique is at 6.3. A blend of these gives 120 kt maximum winds at the initial time, up considerably from the previous advisory. Lester is anticipated to experience quite low vertical shear for the next few days, though the lukewarm SSTs and 40-50 percent humidity air are only marginally conducive for maintaining high intensities. The current convective structure and its environment suggest that Lester may be evolving into an annular hurricane, which tends to weaken only slowly over time. The NHC intensity forecast is closest to the HWRF and DSHP models, and is above that from the previous advisory due to the higher initial intensity. Lester is moving toward the west-southwest at about 11 kt. A large subtropical ridge to its north is providing the westward steering and low shear environment. The tightly packed model guidance indicate that the system should turn slightly toward the west or west-northwest during the next two days at about the same rate of forward speed. The NHC track forecast is based upon the TVCN multi-model consensus technique and is very close to that from the previous advisory. No new information is available about Lester's initial wind radii, so that is unchanged from the previous advisory. The NHC wind radii forecast is based upon the RVCN consensus technique and nearly the same as that from the last advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 17.8N 136.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 17.8N 138.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 17.9N 140.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 18.2N 142.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 18.7N 144.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 20.0N 149.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 21.8N 155.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 23.5N 159.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||