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Hurricane LESTER Forecast Discussion Number 27
2016-08-31 10:59:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED AUG 31 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 310858 TCDEP3 HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016 200 AM PDT WED AUG 31 2016 Lester continues to display a distinct 20 nm diameter eye in the middle of a symmetric eyewall with no banding features. Subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB remain at 6.5 and 6.0 current intensity numbers, respectively, while the CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique is at 6.6. A blend of these gives 120 kt maximum winds at the initial time, the same as previously indicated. Lester is anticipated to experience quite low vertical shear for the next few days, though the lukewarm SSTs and about 40 percent humidity air are only marginally conducive for maintaining high intensities. The current convective structure and its environment suggest that Lester may have evolved into an annular hurricane, which tends to weaken only slowly over time. The 00Z intensity model guidance has backed off some from the 18Z model suite. The NHC intensity forecast - slightly lower than that in the previous advisory - is closest to the SHIPS model through 48 hours and the HWRF thereafter. Lester is moving toward the west at about 10 kt. A large subtropical ridge to its north is providing the westward steering and low shear environment. The tightly packed model guidance indicate that the system should turn slightly toward the west-northwest during the next few days at about the same rate of forward speed. The NHC track forecast is based upon the TVCN multi-model consensus technique and is slightly south of the track from the previous advisory. A 0604Z ASCAT scatterometer pass indicated little change was needed for the initial 34- and 50-kt wind radii. The NHC wind radii forecast is based upon the RVCN consensus technique and nearly the same as that from the last advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 17.7N 137.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 17.7N 139.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 18.0N 141.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 18.3N 143.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 18.9N 145.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 20.2N 151.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 21.8N 156.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 24.0N 161.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea
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