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Hurricane LESTER Forecast Discussion Number 28
2016-08-31 16:38:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED AUG 31 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 311438 TCDEP3 HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016 800 AM PDT WED AUG 31 2016 The convective ring around Lester's eye has warmed and shrunk a little in the past couple of hours, but the 15-20 n mi wide eye remains distinct. Based on a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is set to 115 kt for this advisory. The forecast environment of low shear, marginally cool SSTs, and a drier mid-level environment should result in weakening during the next couple of days. Later in the period the SSTs remain marginal, but southeasterly shear increases, and this should result in continued weakening through the rest of the forecast period. This trend is seen in all of the intensity guidance, with some spread. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted downward a bit this cycle. This forecast is above the latest IVCN intensity consensus aid through 48 hours and near the consensus at days 3-5. The initial motion estimate is 270/10. Lester will continue to be steered westward and then turn west-northwestward by an expansive mid-level ridge extending across much of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean through the forecast period. The track model guidance is in generally good agreement on this scenario, however, there remains some significant across-track spread in the guidance near the Hawaiian Islands. The UKMET and GEFS ensemble mean are along the southern edge of the guidance envelope with a track closer to the Big Island, while the HWRF and GFDL are farther north of the island chain. The ECMWF, GFS, and consensus aids lie between these scenarios just north of the islands. The new NHC forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies between the multi- model consensus and the latest GFS track. All interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Lester, as it is too early to determine what impacts there could be along the island chain from this tropical cyclone given the track forecast uncertainty in 3 to 5 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 17.8N 138.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 17.9N 140.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 18.1N 142.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 18.6N 144.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 19.2N 147.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 20.6N 152.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 22.5N 157.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 24.5N 162.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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