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Hurricane LESTER Forecast Discussion Number 29
2016-08-31 22:37:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED AUG 31 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 312037 TCDEP3 HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016 200 PM PDT WED AUG 31 2016 Lester's satellite appearance has not changed much since the last advisory. Although the eye has shrunk a little it remains quite warm, and the convective ring around the eye still has tops colder than -70C. The initial intensity remains 115 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT. Lester has some annular characteristics, with little convective banding. Given the forecast track through a region of SSTs of 26-27C and in low shear, steady weakening is expected through the forecast period. Given the annular structure, the NHC forecast remains above most of the guidance through much of the forecast period. The initial motion estimate is 275/11. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as Lester will continue to be steered westward and then turn west-northwestward by a mid-level ridge centered north of the Hawaiian Islands through the forecast period. The track models remain in generally good agreement on this scenario, but there remains some significant across-track spread in the guidance near the Hawaiian Islands. The GFS and UKMET models are along the southern edge of the main guidance envelope, with a track near or over the islands, while the HWRF, GFDL, and COAMPS-TC are farther north. The NHC forecast is largely an update of the previous one, and lies very close to the multi-model consensus through the period. All interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Lester, as it is too early to determine what impacts there could be along the island chain given the track forecast uncertainty in the 3 to 5 day period. The NASA Gulfstream-V jet is flying a synoptic surveillance mission around Lester to acquire additional data for tonight's 00Z global model cycle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 18.0N 139.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 18.2N 141.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 18.6N 143.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 19.2N 146.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 19.8N 149.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 21.4N 154.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 23.2N 159.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 25.0N 164.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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