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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 19
2024-10-07 04:40:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 070240 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 39.4W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 50SE 40SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 39.4W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 39.0W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.0N 40.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.4N 42.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.8N 44.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.2N 45.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.2N 47.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.9N 48.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 23.4N 50.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 25.0N 50.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 39.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Kirk Graphics
2024-10-07 04:36:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 02:36:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 02:36:08 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 31
2024-10-07 04:33:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 070232 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 300 AM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024 Kirk is in the process of transitioning into an extratropical cyclone. Satellite images show that the associated deep convection is now confined to the northern side of the circulation and that the inner core has been eroding. In addition, there appears to be some frontal features beginning to form. The initial intensity is lowered to 70 kt following a blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates. The 34-kt wind radii have been tweaked on the system's east side based on recent ASCAT data. Extratropical transition should be complete on Monday when the system moves over water temperatures in the low 20's C and into an environment of nearly 40 kt of vertical wind shear. These parameters will also cause steady weakening during the next few days, and dissipation seems likely by day 4. The models are in good agreement, and this forecast is closest to the latest GFS solution. Kirk is gradually turning to the right, and the latest initial motion is 045/22 kt. A turn to the east-northeast with a notable increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days as the system moves within the mid-latitude westerly flow. This should take the extratropical low to the north of the Azores on Tuesday and across western Europe on Wednesday. Although Kirk is over the open ocean, it is still producing large swells that could lead to life-threatening rip currents across portions of the Caribbean, Bermuda, the east coast of the U.S., and Atlantic Canada. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 38.6N 43.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 41.0N 39.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 08/0000Z 42.9N 33.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 08/1200Z 43.5N 25.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/0000Z 43.8N 16.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 09/1200Z 45.6N 6.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/0000Z 48.1N 3.7E 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics