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Hurricane Milton Forecast Advisory Number 14
2024-10-08 16:55:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 934 WTNT24 KNHC 081454 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 1500 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 88.4W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 929 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 270SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 88.4W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 88.8W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.6N 87.2W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.2N 85.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.8N 83.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 35SW 35NW. 50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 140SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.1N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 150SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 29.1N 78.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...110NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...260NE 150SE 150SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 29.7N 74.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 0SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...240NE 130SE 160SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 30.4N 67.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 110SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 31.8N 60.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 88.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 08/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 25
2024-10-08 16:36:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 08 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 081436 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 08 2024 Satellite images show Leslie has made a bit of a comeback this morning, with convection trying to wrap around the center. Microwave passes also display that Leslie still has some inner-core features including a partial eyewall. Overall, Dvorak estimates are about the same as earlier, so the initial wind speed will stay 60 kt. Plentiful dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere has been preventing sustained deep convection near Leslie, despite low-to-moderate shear. Leslie does have a short window where the shear diminishes later today and tomorrow, though Leslie will also be contending with less instability near the wake of Kirk. While some of the guidance is showing re-strengthening, the above factors generally argue for little significant change during the next day or so. The new forecast is nudged higher than the previous one, but lies below the model consensus through 36 hours. After that time, the storm should encounter strong northerly flow of over 50 kt, which is forecast to cause Leslie to quickly decouple and degenerate into a remnant low by this weekend. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/11 kt. There are no significant track changes to report as Leslie is being steered around the southwest to northwest sides of the subtropical ridge, causing the storm's motion to change to the north late tomorrow and then recurve to the northeast later this week. Only cosmetic changes were made to the last NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 19.4N 45.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 20.5N 46.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 21.7N 47.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 22.6N 48.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 23.4N 49.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 24.6N 49.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 26.3N 48.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 12/1200Z 30.7N 43.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 13/1200Z 34.0N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Leslie Graphics
2024-10-08 16:36:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 14:36:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 15:23:12 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics