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Hurricane Milton Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2024-10-08 16:55:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 081455 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 1500 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 130 KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 7(28) X(28) X(28) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) 7(34) X(34) X(34) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 23(29) 3(32) X(32) X(32) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 40(45) 11(56) X(56) X(56) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 9(24) X(24) X(24) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) THE VILLAGES 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 44(56) 4(60) X(60) X(60) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 4(30) X(30) X(30) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ORLANDO FL 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 57(68) 9(77) X(77) X(77) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 6(40) X(40) X(40) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 16(16) 61(77) 12(89) X(89) X(89) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 40(41) 15(56) X(56) X(56) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 13(29) X(29) X(29) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 17(17) 60(77) 12(89) X(89) X(89) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 40(41) 15(56) X(56) X(56) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 13(29) X(29) X(29) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 54(70) 10(80) X(80) X(80) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 11(41) X(41) X(41) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) X(17) X(17) W PALM BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 40(54) 7(61) X(61) X(61) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 29(42) 5(47) X(47) X(47) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MIAMI FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) MARATHON FL 34 X 3( 3) 12(15) 9(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X 5( 5) 17(22) 5(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X 4( 4) 50(54) 20(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) 12(12) 15(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) FT MYERS FL 34 X 2( 2) 39(41) 27(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 20(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) VENICE FL 34 X 6( 6) 72(78) 17(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 40(40) 35(75) 2(77) X(77) X(77) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) 15(15) 36(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) TAMPA FL 34 X 3( 3) 58(61) 31(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) 22(22) 44(66) 3(69) X(69) X(69) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 38(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 2( 2) 29(31) 28(59) 1(60) 1(61) X(61) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST MARKS FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) APALACHICOLA 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 3( 3) 20(23) 6(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 15(40) X(40) X(40) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 1(13) X(13) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HAVANA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Hurricane Milton Forecast Advisory Number 14
2024-10-08 16:55:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 934 WTNT24 KNHC 081454 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 1500 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 88.4W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 929 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 270SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 88.4W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 88.8W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.6N 87.2W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.2N 85.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.8N 83.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 35SW 35NW. 50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 140SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.1N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 150SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 29.1N 78.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...110NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...260NE 150SE 150SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 29.7N 74.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 0SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...240NE 130SE 160SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 30.4N 67.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 110SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 31.8N 60.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 88.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 08/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 25
2024-10-08 16:36:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 08 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 081436 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 08 2024 Satellite images show Leslie has made a bit of a comeback this morning, with convection trying to wrap around the center. Microwave passes also display that Leslie still has some inner-core features including a partial eyewall. Overall, Dvorak estimates are about the same as earlier, so the initial wind speed will stay 60 kt. Plentiful dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere has been preventing sustained deep convection near Leslie, despite low-to-moderate shear. Leslie does have a short window where the shear diminishes later today and tomorrow, though Leslie will also be contending with less instability near the wake of Kirk. While some of the guidance is showing re-strengthening, the above factors generally argue for little significant change during the next day or so. The new forecast is nudged higher than the previous one, but lies below the model consensus through 36 hours. After that time, the storm should encounter strong northerly flow of over 50 kt, which is forecast to cause Leslie to quickly decouple and degenerate into a remnant low by this weekend. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/11 kt. There are no significant track changes to report as Leslie is being steered around the southwest to northwest sides of the subtropical ridge, causing the storm's motion to change to the north late tomorrow and then recurve to the northeast later this week. Only cosmetic changes were made to the last NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 19.4N 45.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 20.5N 46.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 21.7N 47.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 22.6N 48.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 23.4N 49.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 24.6N 49.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 26.3N 48.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 12/1200Z 30.7N 43.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 13/1200Z 34.0N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
Category: Transportation and Logistics