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Hurricane Milton Forecast Advisory Number 18
2024-10-09 16:55:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 091455 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 1500 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 84.3W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 931 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT.......140NE 120SE 130SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 360SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 84.3W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 84.8W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 27.0N 83.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 130SE 130SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.0N 81.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...240NE 140SE 130SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 28.7N 78.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 40SE 50SW 90NW. 34 KT...240NE 140SE 140SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 29.1N 75.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 30SE 30SW 90NW. 34 KT...280NE 120SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.3N 72.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 80SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.9N 68.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 110SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 31.4N 62.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 80SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 32.8N 55.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 84.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 09/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Leslie Graphics
2024-10-09 16:54:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 14:54:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 14:54:36 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 29
2024-10-09 16:53:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 091453 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024 Visible, infrared and some recent microwave images suggest that the center of the small tropical cyclone continues to be located underneath the middle of the central dense overcast. In fact, some of the recent frames have hinted at a ragged eye feature. The TAFB and SAB subjective Dvorak estimates are a consensus T-4.5/77 kt. The initial intensity is increased to 75 kt, in best agreement with the Dvorak estimates. Leslie's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 305/9 kt. A gradual turn to the north is expected in about 36 h as Leslie rounds the southwestern and western periphery of a subtropical ridge to the east. Afterward, Leslie should accelerate toward the northeast in response to a strong trough approaching the cyclone from the northwest. The NHC forecast is nearly identical to the previous one and lies near the TVCN and HCCA consensus models. Leslie is forecast to remain in a favorable environment for another 12-18 h. The intensity forecast has been increased to an 85-kt peak at hour 12 and 24, and it is possible that it could strengthen a bit more than that, as suggested by the HAFS-B model. By hour 24, Leslie is expected to run into a wall of strong northerly shear caused by a strengthening upper-level anticyclone in between Milton and Leslie. The shear is expected to cause Leslie to rapidly weaken during the 24 to 48 h period. While it is possible that Leslie could lose most of its convection in 2 to 3 days, the latest GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery show periodic bursts of convection continuing into Day 4. However, Leslie is likely to merge with a front and become extratropical in 3 to 4 days, and a transition to an extratropical cyclone is forecast at the end of that period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 21.7N 48.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 22.5N 49.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 23.4N 49.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 24.6N 50.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 26.4N 49.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 12/0000Z 28.7N 47.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 31.1N 44.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 13/1200Z 34.5N 35.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/1200Z 35.9N 26.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics