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Hurricane Milton Public Advisory Number 18
2024-10-09 16:56:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 382 WTNT34 KNHC 091456 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 ...TORNADIC SUPERCELLS FROM MILTON BEGINNING TO SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...THE TIME TO PREPARE, INCLUDING EVACUATE IF TOLD DO SO, IS QUICKLY COMING TO AN END ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 84.3W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM WSW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Yankeetown, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach * Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Marys River * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach * Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass * Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo * North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to the Savannah River * Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of the Savannah River to South Santee River South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 84.3 West. Milton is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A northeastward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through this evening. A turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida tonight, and move off the east coast of Florida over the western Atlantic Ocean on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida tonight, and remain at hurricane strength while it moves across the Florida peninsula through Thursday. Gradual weakening is forecast while Milton moves eastward over the western Atlantic, and it is likely to become an extratropical storm by early Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). A NOAA saildrone (SD-1083) located approximately 80 miles northeast of the center recently reported a sustained wind of 44 mph (71 km/h) with a gust of 57 mph (91 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data is 931 mb (27.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anna Maria Island, FL to Boca Grande, FL...10-15 ft Anclote River, FL to Anna Maria Island, FL...8-12 ft Tampa Bay...8-12 ft Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft Aripeka, FL to Anclote River, FL...3-5 ft Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across Florida beginning this evening through Thursday morning and are possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the west coast of Florida in a few hours, spreading across the peninsula and reaching the east coast tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area along the Georgia coast on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the South Carolina coast on Thursday. TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are likely today and tonight across parts of central and southern Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast and will increase along the southeastern U.S. coast during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Milton Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2024-10-09 16:56:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 091456 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 1500 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLESTON SC 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 2 7( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) WAYCROSS GA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 3 13(16) 4(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) JACKSONVILLE 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 34 4 18(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) DAYTONA BEACH 34 5 58(63) 6(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) THE VILLAGES 34 27 52(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) THE VILLAGES 50 1 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ORLANDO FL 34 30 65(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) ORLANDO FL 50 1 38(39) 4(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) ORLANDO FL 64 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) COCOA BEACH FL 34 24 70(94) 3(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) COCOA BEACH FL 50 2 50(52) 20(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X 20(20) 17(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) PATRICK AFB 34 24 70(94) 4(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) PATRICK AFB 50 2 51(53) 20(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) PATRICK AFB 64 X 21(21) 15(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) FT PIERCE FL 34 22 65(87) 6(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) FT PIERCE FL 50 2 29(31) 15(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) FT PIERCE FL 64 X 9( 9) 7(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) W PALM BEACH 34 15 48(63) 7(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) W PALM BEACH 50 1 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) W PALM BEACH 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FT LAUDERDALE 34 11 33(44) 5(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) FT LAUDERDALE 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MIAMI FL 34 4 7(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 3 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MARATHON FL 34 7 5(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) KEY WEST FL 34 9 4(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) NAPLES FL 34 86 4(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) NAPLES FL 50 10 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) NAPLES FL 64 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 93 3(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) FT MYERS FL 50 15 16(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) FT MYERS FL 64 3 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) VENICE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VENICE FL 50 84 12(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) VENICE FL 64 54 32(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) TAMPA FL 34 97 3(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TAMPA FL 50 22 45(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) TAMPA FL 64 6 30(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) CEDAR KEY FL 34 49 20(69) 2(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) CEDAR KEY FL 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 34 8 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PANAMA CITY FL 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALBANY GA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) GRAND BAHAMA 34 3 19(22) 24(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 5( 5) 5(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ANDROS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Milton Forecast Advisory Number 18
2024-10-09 16:55:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 091455 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 1500 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 84.3W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 931 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT.......140NE 120SE 130SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 360SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 84.3W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 84.8W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 27.0N 83.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 130SE 130SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.0N 81.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...240NE 140SE 130SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 28.7N 78.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 40SE 50SW 90NW. 34 KT...240NE 140SE 140SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 29.1N 75.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 30SE 30SW 90NW. 34 KT...280NE 120SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.3N 72.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 80SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.9N 68.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 110SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 31.4N 62.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 80SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 32.8N 55.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 84.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 09/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Category: Transportation and Logistics