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Hurricane Milton Forecast Advisory Number 20
2024-10-10 04:47:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 10 2024 120 WTNT24 KNHC 100247 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 0300 UTC THU OCT 10 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 82.0W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......180NE 170SE 110SW 220NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 480SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 82.0W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 82.7W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.7N 80.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 170SE 110SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 29.2N 76.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 160SE 130SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 29.3N 73.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 130SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.0N 71.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 90SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.0N 68.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 80SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 29.5N 65.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 31.6N 59.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 82.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 10/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 31
2024-10-10 04:44:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 100244 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 09 2024 Since the previous advisory, a small eye feature has started appearing on geostationary infrared imagery with Leslie, surrounded by a ring of very cold (below -70 C) cloud top temperatures. This structure is also supported by an earlier SAR-RCM2 pass that showed a tight inner core with a radius of maximum wind that had contracted from yesterday. 00 UTC subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were T5.0/90-kt and T5.5/102-kt, respectively. Objective intensity estimates were somewhat lower, between 79-86 kt, and blending the data results in a 90 kt intensity this cycle. A Saildrone (SD-1036) appears to be near the path of Leslie, and is currently reporting sustained tropical-storm-force winds that are quickly increasing about 50 n mi northwest of the center. As noted previously, another saildrone (SD-1040) indicated that sea-surface temperatures near Leslie are warmer than expected, near 29 C. At the same time, the hurricane is in a very narrow region of low vertical wind shear that should persist for another 6-12 h. While the interpolated intensity guidance is a bit lower, the raw model output of all four of the hurricane-regional models (HAFS-A/B, HMON, HWRF) show Leslie briefly becoming a major hurricane in 12 h. Because the raw model output from these intensity aids has been outperforming the interpolated guidance over the past day, the NHC intensity forecast will now show a 100 kt peak tomorrow morning. However, this peak is likely to be short-lived, as strong upper-level northerly flow, via outflow from Milton and Invest 93L, will soon overtake the hurricane, likely leading to rapid weakening. Those same hurricane-regional models show Leslie weakening below hurricane intensity in 36 h, and that rapid weakening continues to be reflected in the latest intensity forecast. While sheared puffs of deep convection may continue for a subsequent day or two, eventually Leslie is likely to lose the necessary convective organization to be classified as a tropical cyclone. The NHC forecast continues to show Leslie becoming post-tropical by the end of the weekend, though this could occur sooner than forecast given the proximity of very dry environmental air and high shear affecting the system. Leslie continues to move northwestward, estimated at 315/7 kt this evening. The track forecast is more straightforward, with Leslie rounding the western edge of a subtropical ridge to its east, resulting in a gradual turn northward and then northeastward over the forecast period. With that said, there has been a notable westward and poleward shift in the guidance this cycle, and the NHC track forecast was moved in that direction, but not as far as the latest TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 22.6N 49.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 23.3N 49.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 24.4N 50.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 26.0N 50.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 28.4N 48.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 30.7N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 33.0N 41.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 36.0N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 15/0000Z 37.1N 21.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Leslie Graphics
2024-10-10 04:43:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 10 Oct 2024 02:43:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 10 Oct 2024 02:43:09 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics