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Hurricane Milton Public Advisory Number 6
2024-10-06 22:53:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 062052 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 ...MILTON CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 93.8W ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Celestun to Cabo Catoche and a Tropical Storm Warning from east of Cabo Catoche to Cancun. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Celestun to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Celestun to Cancun A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for portions of Florida tonight or early Monday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 93.8 West. Milton is moving toward the east near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected today. An eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast on Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move just north of the Yucatan Peninsula and across the southern Gulf of Mexico Monday and Tuesday and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to rapidly intensify during the next couple of days and become a major hurricane on Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore flow. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin as early as Monday morning in the warning area, and hurricane conditions are possible beginning Monday afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Kirk Graphics
2024-10-06 22:37:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 20:37:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 21:23:16 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 30
2024-10-06 22:37:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 062037 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 Satellite imagery suggests that Kirk has begun the process of extratropical transition. Most of the convection is located on the north side of the low-level center due to strong south-southwesterly wind shear. Subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB range from 65-75 kt, while the latest objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 65-80 kt. The intensity has been lowered to 75 kt for this advisory. ASCAT data from earlier this morning necessitated an increase in the initial wind radii, showing that Kirk is a very large hurricane. There have been no significant changes to the track reasoning. A narrow mid- to upper-level ridge east of Kirk will weaken over the next 24-36 h, allowing Kirk to turn east-northeastward or eastward within the zonal mid-latitude westerly flow. The new NHC track forecast lies nearly on top of the previous NHC track, although the new track is a bit slower. This track is relatively close to the TVCA and a bit slower than the HCCA corrected consensus guidance. The NHC forecast shows Kirk passing north of the Azores Monday night and Tuesday as an extratropical cyclone, and should reach western Europe late Wednesday, where it could bring gale force winds. Kirk is forecast to continue to gradually weaken as it reaches cooler waters by tonight. Additionally, the southwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to increase significantly over the system by early Monday morning. Global models show the development of frontal features on Monday, and extratropical transition has been moved up to 24 h in the latest official forecast. Despite gradual weakening as Kirk becomes post-tropical, the cyclone is expected to remain a large and powerful cyclone until it reaches the coast of western Europe. Therefore, the system will continue to spread very large swells across a large portion of the North Atlantic Ocean for a few more days. The latest NHC intensity forecast is at the high end of the guidance during the extratropical portion of the forecast, in best agreement with the GFS and ECMWF global models. By early Thursday, the cyclone will become elongated over western Europe, and the latest NHC forecast shows dissipation in 96 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 37.0N 46.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 39.4N 42.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 42.1N 37.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 08/0600Z 43.3N 30.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 08/1800Z 43.6N 21.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 09/0600Z 44.7N 11.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/1800Z 47.1N 2.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics