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Hurricane Milton Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2024-10-06 22:53:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 062052 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 2100 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 2(18) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 27(37) 1(38) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 1(16) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 32(44) 1(45) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 1(20) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) X(28) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 23(38) X(38) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) X(16) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 35(50) 1(51) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) X(22) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 29(53) X(53) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) X(25) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 32(58) 1(59) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) X(25) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 36(71) 1(72) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 29(39) X(39) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 1(17) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 36(71) 2(73) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 29(39) X(39) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) X(17) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 30(65) 2(67) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20(29) 1(30) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 20(55) 1(56) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) X(21) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 15(49) X(49) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) X(15) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 9(26) X(26) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 8(24) X(24) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 36(38) 4(42) X(42) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 42(46) 2(48) X(48) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) X(14) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 61(63) 8(71) 1(72) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 8(38) X(38) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 6(21) X(21) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 48(49) 11(60) X(60) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 9(31) X(31) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) X(16) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 70(72) 12(84) X(84) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 42(42) 13(55) X(55) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 11(35) X(35) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 61(61) 18(79) 1(80) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 20(51) X(51) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 15(31) X(31) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 19(58) X(58) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 17(31) X(31) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) X(18) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) 1(18) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 7(26) X(26) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 6(36) X(36) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) X(14) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 4(17) X(17) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) X(15) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) MERIDA MX 34 1 25(26) 26(52) 1(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) MERIDA MX 50 X 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COZUMEL MX 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 12(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 22(36) 1(37) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 33(38) 11(49) X(49) X(49) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 1(15) X(15) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) X(13) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Kirk Graphics
2024-10-06 22:37:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 20:37:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 21:23:16 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 30
2024-10-06 22:37:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 062037 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 Satellite imagery suggests that Kirk has begun the process of extratropical transition. Most of the convection is located on the north side of the low-level center due to strong south-southwesterly wind shear. Subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB range from 65-75 kt, while the latest objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 65-80 kt. The intensity has been lowered to 75 kt for this advisory. ASCAT data from earlier this morning necessitated an increase in the initial wind radii, showing that Kirk is a very large hurricane. There have been no significant changes to the track reasoning. A narrow mid- to upper-level ridge east of Kirk will weaken over the next 24-36 h, allowing Kirk to turn east-northeastward or eastward within the zonal mid-latitude westerly flow. The new NHC track forecast lies nearly on top of the previous NHC track, although the new track is a bit slower. This track is relatively close to the TVCA and a bit slower than the HCCA corrected consensus guidance. The NHC forecast shows Kirk passing north of the Azores Monday night and Tuesday as an extratropical cyclone, and should reach western Europe late Wednesday, where it could bring gale force winds. Kirk is forecast to continue to gradually weaken as it reaches cooler waters by tonight. Additionally, the southwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to increase significantly over the system by early Monday morning. Global models show the development of frontal features on Monday, and extratropical transition has been moved up to 24 h in the latest official forecast. Despite gradual weakening as Kirk becomes post-tropical, the cyclone is expected to remain a large and powerful cyclone until it reaches the coast of western Europe. Therefore, the system will continue to spread very large swells across a large portion of the North Atlantic Ocean for a few more days. The latest NHC intensity forecast is at the high end of the guidance during the extratropical portion of the forecast, in best agreement with the GFS and ECMWF global models. By early Thursday, the cyclone will become elongated over western Europe, and the latest NHC forecast shows dissipation in 96 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 37.0N 46.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 39.4N 42.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 42.1N 37.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 08/0600Z 43.3N 30.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 08/1800Z 43.6N 21.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 09/0600Z 44.7N 11.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/1800Z 47.1N 2.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics