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Hurricane Milton Public Advisory Number 6A
2024-10-07 01:55:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 950 WTNT34 KNHC 062355 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 700 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 ...MILTON EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 93.4W ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Celestun to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Celestun to Cancun A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for portions of Florida early Monday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located by Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 93.4 West. Milton is moving toward the east near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected tonight. An eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast on Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move just north of the Yucatan Peninsula and across the southern Gulf of Mexico Monday and Tuesday and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to intensify rapidly during the next couple of days and become a major hurricane on Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin as early as Monday morning in the warning area, and hurricane conditions are possible beginning Monday afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-10-07 01:41:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 062341 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, on Hurricane Leslie, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, and on Hurricane Milton, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in a few days. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable for some development of this system while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. The system is expected to move near or over the Cabo Verde Islands on Wednesday and Thursday, and interests there should monitor its progress. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-10-07 01:40:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 062339 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99): Earlier satellite wind data indicated that an area of low pressure located less than a couple hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico was becoming better defined. However, the current associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next day or two while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, the disturbance could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics