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Hurricane NEWTON Forecast Discussion Number 10
2016-09-07 04:32:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT TUE SEP 06 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 070232 TCDEP5 HURRICANE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 900 PM MDT TUE SEP 06 2016 The cloud pattern of Newton has not changed much since the previous advisory, so the initial intensity remains a possibly generous 65 kt, with the strongest winds likely found east of the center over the Gulf of California. Little change in intensity is forecast before Newton moves inland over northwestern Mexico early Wednesday. Rapid weakening is expected after that time, but Newton could still reach southeastern Arizona as a tropical storm on Wednesday. Newton's surface circulation is forecast to dissipate by 36 hours. The initial motion estimate is 350/15. Newton is positioned between a mid-level ridge centered over the south-central United States and a mid- to upper-level trough moving into the western United States. Newton should move northward and then north-northeastward under the influence of these steering features through dissipation. The new NHC Track forecast is an update of the previous one and is close to the multi-model consensus. Newton is a large tropical cyclone with hazards extending well away from the center, and these hazards will affect portions of northwestern Mexico and southeastern Arizona during the next day or so. Moisture associated with the remnants of Newton are likely to cause heavy rains and localized flash flooding over parts of Arizona and New Mexico Wednesday and Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 27.3N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 29.8N 111.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 24H 08/0000Z 32.7N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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