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Hurricane NEWTON Forecast Discussion Number 7
2016-09-06 10:56:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT TUE SEP 06 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 060855 TCDEP5 HURRICANE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 300 AM MDT TUE SEP 06 2016 Newton's intensity appears to have leveled off based on little change in the ragged 45-nmi diameter mid- to upper-level eye noted in conventional and microwave satellite imagery. Now that the eye is interacting with the mountainous terrain of Baja California Sur, gradual weakening should begin. However, since Newton's wind field is much larger than that of a typical hurricane, slower weakening is expected and Newton is forecast to still be a hurricane when it makes a second landfall along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico in 24-30 hours. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF models show Newton losing no strength at all before the next landfall occurs. After moving inland over northwestern Mexico, Newton is forecast to rapidly weaken due to interaction with the high terrain of the Sierra Madre Occidental mountains. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is above the intensity consensus model IVCN, close to a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models. Newton is now moving north-northwestward or 335/15 kt based on microwave satellite fixes. The center of the large eye of Newton is currently moving over or very near Cabo San Lucas, with most of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula now inside the eye. The hurricane is forecast to move steadily around the western periphery of a strong deep-layer ridge currently located over the south-central United States and northwestern Mexico. This stable steering pattern will result in Newton turning northward later today, and then turning toward the north-northeast or northeast tonight and on Wednesday, bringing the center of the hurricane near the northwestern coast of Mexico Wednesday morning. The NHC track guidance remains tightly packed, and the new official track forecast is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track, and lies near the GFS-ECMWF model solutions. Since Newton is forecast to remain a hurricane until the second landfall occurs, the Government of Mexico has issued a hurricane warning for a portion of mainland Mexico. Although Newton is expected to degenerate into a remnant low over the southwestern United States by 48 hours, deep moisture ahead of the cyclone will result in heavy rains that can produce flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 22.8N 109.9W 80 KT 90 MPH...NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS 12H 06/1800Z 24.7N 110.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 24H 07/0600Z 27.7N 111.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 07/1800Z 30.9N 111.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 08/0600Z 33.4N 109.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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