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Hurricane NEWTON Forecast Discussion Number 8
2016-09-06 16:44:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT TUE SEP 06 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 061444 TCDEP5 HURRICANE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 900 AM MDT TUE SEP 06 2016 Newton's satellite appearance has begun to deteriorate. The cyclone's cloud pattern is characterized by a ragged eye, which has been filling, and breaks in the western eyewall. Deep convection within the central dense overcast (CDO) is asymmetrically distributed, and cloud top temperatures within the CDO have begun to warm significantly. Dvorak T-numbers have decreased to T4.5/77 kt and T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB, respectively, and the initial intensity estimate is lowered to 70 kt, a blend of these values. The center of Newton is expected to traverse the rugged terrain of Baja California Sur today, and its interaction with land should result in steady weakening. After the center emerges in the Gulf of California late this afternoon or evening, it is not expected to spend much time over water before making a second landfall in northwestern Mexico early Wednesday. With an increase in southwesterly shear forecast around that time, either a steady intensity or slow weakening is likely prior to the second landfall. Once Newton moves inland over northwestern Mexico, the low- to mid-level centers are likely to separate when the circulation passes over the Sierra Madre Occidental, and rapid weakening is forecast. The NHC intensity forecast is reduced some compared to the previous one, and is near or just above the multi-model consensus. The initial motion estimate is 325/17. Newton is being steered around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge over the United States lower Mississippi Valley but should turn northward tonight as it become embedded in the flow between the ridge and a trough of low pressure lifting out over the western United States. The northward motion should continue through dissipation well inland over northwestern Mexico or southeastern Arizona. The NHC track forecast is virtually the same as the previous one but just a little faster, and is near the multi-model consensus. Newton continues to be a large tropical cyclone, and hazards extend well away from the center. These hazards will affect a large portion of Baja California Sur and northwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Moisture associated the remnants of Newton are likely to cause heavy rains and localized flash flooding over parts of Arizona and New Mexico Wednesday and Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 24.1N 111.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 26.5N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 24H 07/1200Z 29.7N 111.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 08/0000Z 32.8N 110.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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