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Hurricane NEWTON Forecast Discussion Number 9
2016-09-06 22:45:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 06 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 062044 TCDEP5 HURRICANE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 06 2016 The cloud pattern of Newton has continued to decay since the last advisory, with a continued warming of the cloud tops near the center. There has been no data close enough to the center to help determine the intensity, so based on a satellite intensity estimate from TAFB and the observed decay the intensity is reduced to a possibly generous 65 kt. The initial motion is 345/16. Newton is being steered around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge over the lower Mississippi Valley of the United States. It should turn northward later tonight as it become embedded in the flow between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level trough over the western United States. The northward motion should continue through dissipation well inland. The new forecast track is again similar to, but slightly faster than, the previous track and lies near the multi-model consensus. Little change in strength is expected as the center of Newton crosses portions of Baja California Sur and the Gulf of California during the next 12 hours, and the cyclone is forecast to be a hurricane at landfall in northwestern mainland Mexico. Weakening is expected after landfall, and the circulation of Newton is expected to dissipate over Arizona and New Mexico between 36-48 hours. The new NHC forecast is similar to the previous one, and it indicates that Newton could reach southeastern Arizona before weakening below tropical-storm strength. Newton continues to be a large tropical cyclone, and hazards extend well away from the center. These hazards will affect a large portion of Baja California Sur, northwestern Mexico, and southeastern Arizona during the next day or so. Moisture associated with the remnants of Newton are likely to cause heavy rains and localized flash flooding over parts of Arizona and New Mexico Wednesday and Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 25.8N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 12H 07/0600Z 28.2N 111.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 07/1800Z 31.5N 111.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 08/0600Z 34.2N 110.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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