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Hurricane NORBERT Forecast Discussion Number 18
2014-09-06 22:39:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 062039 TCDEP4 HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014 The eye continues to be evident on visible images, but the convection is not as deep as it was earlier. In fact, the strongest convection is limited to the southern semicircle where the ocean is still warm. Dvorak T-numbers have continued to decrease, and based on blend of these estimates, the initial intensity has been lowered to 90 kt. The northern portion of the circulation is already reaching cooler waters and moving into a more stable environment. This should result in steady or even rapid weakening during the next 24 hours, with a slower rate of weakening thereafter as the circulation gradually spins down. Norbert is expected to become a remnant low over the cold waters just west of the northern Baja California peninsula in 3 days or so. Norbert has been moving toward the northwest or 305 degrees at 7 knots. It is not necessary to make any significant adjustment to the previous forecast track since the global models are not showing any changes in the steering flow. As indicated earlier, Norbert is forecast to move with the flow around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States. In 48 hours, the cyclone will reach the base of the mid-latitude westerlies and begin to move northward and then northeastward. By then, Norbert is forecast to be a shallow cyclone and will be moving little in a weak low-level flow. The NHC forecast follows the trend indicated by the multi-model consensus. Moisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being advected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these areas during the next few days. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 25.3N 114.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 25.8N 115.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 26.6N 116.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 27.5N 117.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 28.8N 117.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 29.5N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/1800Z 30.0N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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