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Hurricane NORBERT Forecast Discussion Number 19
2014-09-07 04:34:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 070234 TCDEP4 HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014 The cloud pattern of Norbert has degraded significantly over the past few hours. The eye is no longer apparent, and in fact there is no deep convection north of the center where SSTs are below 26C. Satellite intensity estimates continue to decrease, and the initial intensity of 75 kt is based on the latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate and the Dvorak estimate from SAB. Rapid weakening is expected to continue during the next 24 hours, as the cyclone will move over colder waters and into a drier and more stable environment. Norbert should then weaken more slowly to remnant low status in 2 to 3 days over the cold waters west of the northern Baja California peninsula. The new NHC intensity forecast is close the latest IVCN multi-model consensus. Norbert has jogged a bit to the left over the past few hours, with an initial motion estimate of 300/07. The synoptic reasoning for the track forecast remains unchanged. Norbert will be steered around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States, which should result in a turn toward the north-northwest by 24 hours. By 48 hours, Norbert should turn northward as it moves into a break in the ridge at the base of a mid-latitude trough off the U.S. West Coast. A slow northeastward motion is shown late in the period as the shallow cyclone will be embedded in weak low-level flow. The new NHC track is similar to the previous one adjusted for the initial position and motion. The 34-kt wind radii have been adjusted inward based on data from a recent ASCAT-B pass. Moisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being advected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these areas during the next few days. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 25.5N 115.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 25.9N 116.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 26.9N 117.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 27.9N 117.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 28.8N 117.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 29.7N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/0000Z 30.0N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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