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Hurricane NORBERT Forecast Discussion Number 20
2014-09-07 10:42:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 07 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 070842 TCDEP4 HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 07 2014 Deep convection has continued to decrease significantly since the previous advisory, and only a small area of thunderstorms exists near the center and in the southeastern quadrant now. Due to the rapid erosion of the convection, satellite intensity estimates have sharply decreased, and the initial intensity of 65 kt is a conservative blend of the TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT estimates. Norbert's initial motion estimate is 290/08, a little to the left of the previous advisory motion. No significant changes were made to the previous forecast track, and the forecast philosophy remains basically unchanged. During the next 72 hours, Norbert is expected to move slowly northwestward and then northward around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge located over the southwestern United States. As the cyclone weakens over colder water, the low-level circulation is expected to remain behind to the west of the high mountain ranges across northern Baja California, while the mid- and upper-level circulation decouples and moves northeastward into the southwestern United States. The official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and closely follows the multi-model consensus TVCE. Norbert is currently located over sub-26C sea-surface temperatures, and the cyclone will be moving over even colder water and into a drier and more stable air mass during the next 72 hours. The result is that rapid weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours, with Norbert becoming a non-convective remnant low to the west of the northern Baja California Peninsula in 36 hours or so. The NHC intensity forecast is close the latest IVCN multi-model consensus and follows the rapid weakening trend indicated by the SHIPS model. Moisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being advected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these areas during the next few days. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 25.7N 116.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 26.4N 117.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 27.4N 117.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 28.3N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/0600Z 29.0N 117.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/0600Z 29.7N 116.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/0600Z 29.7N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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