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Hurricane ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 16
2014-09-14 04:59:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 140259 TCDEP5 HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014 Satellite imagery indicates that Odile is undergoing rapid intensification. Satellite intensity estimates at 00Z were 90 kt, which is an increase of 35 kt during the last 24 hours. Since then, an eye has become apparent in infrared imagery with cloud tops colder than -80C in the western eyewall. The initial intensity is increased to 95 kt...and this could be conservative. The hurricane has turned to the right and accelerated during the past several hours. The initial motion is 335/10, and the motion over the past 4-5 hours is just west of due north. Odile should turn back toward the northwest during the next several hours as it is steered between a strengthening ridge over the southern United States and a mid-level low or trough west of the Baja California peninsula. The combination of the initial position and motion has lead to a significant northeastward shift in the track model guidance, which now calls for the center of Odile to pass near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula from 36-96 hours. Based on this, the new forecast track is shifted 30-50 n mi to the northeast for the entire forecast period, and it lies just west of Baja California. The new forecast track is in the center of the guidance envelope and is in good agreement with the TVCE consensus model and the Florida State Superensemble. Further northeastward adjustments of the track may be necessary if Odile's northwestward turn occurs later than currently forecast. Rapid intensification is expected to continue until either the hurricane undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle or moves over the wake of cold water left by Hurricane Norbert. The latter is likely to occur in about 18 hours. The forecast peak intensity has been increased to 110 kt at the upper edge of the guidance envelope, and it is possible Odile could get stronger than that. After 18 hours or so, the center should move over cooler water, with land interaction expected after about 36 hours. This should lead to a steady weakening through the remainder of the forecast period. The new forecast track requires major changes for the warnings and watches for Mexico, and a hurricane warning is now in effect for the southern end of the Baja California peninsula. If Odile strikes Baja California as a major hurricane, it will be only the fourth time since since 1967 that such a hurricane has hit the peninsula. In addition, moisture from a disturbance over northeastern Mexico and the Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's circulation northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United States for early next week. This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in those areas. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 17.9N 106.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 19.2N 107.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 21.4N 109.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 23.2N 111.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 24.6N 112.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 26.5N 114.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 28.0N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 29.0N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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